A Level Predicted Grades: A Teacher’s Perspective

Predicted grades. Let’s talk about them.

After 10 years of teaching A Level Maths, I have come to realise that predicted grades are one of the most divisive things between teachers and students.

For some students, they are the “BEST THING THAT HAS EVER HAPPENED TO ME”.

For others, it feels like “THE WORLD IS FALLING APART”.

I get it. Hey I was once a student too (just many years ago /_\)  Predicted grades are important, especially when you care about your future. Being told that your predicted grades are lower than the entry requirements can be incredibly frustrating. (Pounding fist on the table)

But before you get angry with your teachers, I want to explain how we actually decide these grades.

How Do Teachers Decide Your Predicted Grades?

Your teachers are on your side.

We want you to succeed. We want you to get into your dream university. And believe it or not, we would love to predict everyone an A* (imagine!)

Unfortunately, that is not how it works.

Predicted grades should be optimistic, but they also need to be realistic and supported by evidence.

Where does that evidence come from? Your Year 12 class tests, mocks, homework, performance in lessons and progress over time. Different schools have different policies, but assessment results usually carry significant weight.

For example, if a student has consistently achieved C grades throughout Year 12, predicting them anything above B would be difficult to justify.

Could that student eventually achieve an A*? Absolutely.

But there is a difference between what you could potentially achieve and what your teacher can reasonably predict you will achieve.

A predicted grade is not a statement about your intelligence or your potential. It is a professional judgement based on the evidence available at that moment.

Before You Challenge Your Predicted Grades…

Every year, students approach teachers asking for higher predicted grades (I did the same too when I did my A-levels n years ago). That is completely understandable.

But before having that conversation, I would encourage you to sit down and ask yourself a few questions. Logically and calmly.

1. What grades did I actually achieve throughout Year 12?

Not just your best test. Not just the one where you got an A.

Look at ALL your assessments.

If you achieved B, C, C, B, C throughout the year, is an A* prediction really reasonable? even predicting an A in this example would be debatable

2. Am I confusing my target grade with my predicted grade?

These are two very different things.

You might need AAA to study your dream course. That is your target.

But needing an A does not automatically mean you should be predicted an A.

3. What evidence do I have that supports a higher prediction?

Have you recently performed significantly better in assessments? Have you demonstrated a clear improvement in your understanding?

Saying “I promise I will work harder” is not quite the same as showing that your hard work is already producing results.

4. If I were the teacher, what grade would I predict myself?

This is probably the most important question.

Imagine you were given your own assessment record, but without knowing whose results they were.

What grade would you reasonably predict?

Be honest with yourself (insert David Beckham meme here, google if you don't know)

Being Disappointed Is Not Necessarily a Bad Thing

Now, here is something I want to emphasise.

If you are upset about your predicted grades, that is not necessarily a bad thing.

It shows that you care about your education and your future. You have ambitions, expectations and somewhere you want to be.

I would much rather see a student who cares about their future than someone who has completely given up.

But being disappointed and being unreasonable are two different things.

You can disagree with your teacher’s judgement while still respecting the evidence behind it.

Remember, teachers are not trying to stop you from getting into university. We are trying to make a fair judgement about your likely performance, (normally distributed of course!)

What Next?

So, what should you do if your predicted grades are lower than you hoped?

First, speak to your subject teacher.

Not to demand a higher grade, but to understand why you received that prediction.

Ask what evidence was used and whether there is an opportunity to demonstrate improvement before the grades are finalised. Some schools have formal review procedures, so find out what is possible.

Second, rethink the strategy or the course you are applying for

Look carefully at the entry requirements for your preferred courses.

You might need to reconsider some of your university choices, but that does not mean abandoning your ambitions.

Be ambitious, but make sure your application includes realistic options.

Third, keep working towards your target grades.

This is the most important part.

Predicted grades =/= your final A Level results.

If you were predicted a B but believe you can achieve an A, then work towards that A.

Prove it through your assessments, your revision and ultimately your final examinations.

And if you end up achieving better grades than predicted, fantastic!

You may even have opportunities to reconsider your university options once you receive your results.

Final Thoughts

Predicted grades are important, but they are not everything.

They are simply a teacher’s professional judgement about what you are likely to achieve, based on the evidence available.

They are not a ceiling on your potential.

So if your predicted grades are lower than you hoped, feel disappointed. That is understandable.

But once the disappointment settles, ask yourself:

“What can I do now to prove that I am capable of achieving more?”

And remember, even if your university application does not go as planned, there are still other routes available. One of these is UCAS Clearing, which can provide opportunities to find university places after results are released.

Your predicted grades might influence which doors are open to you today, but they do not determine every door that will be open tomorrow.

Who Am I

I am a qualified Mathematics teacher with a decade of experience teaching GCSE and A level Maths, including Further Maths. I have worked with students across a wide range of abilities, from those finding A level Maths challenging to those aiming for the very top grades.

I created BF Maths to support students who want to take more control of their learning.